If you aren’t close to 55 good luck ever reaching retirement.
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@c5 Still very low probability for both.
@e2 5% in minimum if you are in a lucky team
What are the odds of surviving the 5% annual layoff for 30 years without a sponsor?
You get one freak of a boss that hates you for an unknown reason, and your career can be destroyed.
The goalposts are shifting and it's getting harder to make it to 55. Also may not be worth it given shrinking opportunities at EM vs. growth opportunities elsewhere.
Just because a Boomer was able to coast to 65 in the past, doesn't mean that things are like that any more. Opportunities have shrunk rapidly.
If you make it to 55, consider it a bonus, but I definitely wouldn't plan your life around it.
I survived until I was 65 (Eng, Upstream). It depends, in part, on your value to the company. Life is good.
The company has a multi pronged approach to getting rid of the expensive folks: 1) the 50% attrition over the next 8 years due to people retiring, 2) PIP quotas, 3) people leaving due to the constantly changing policies that are always worse for the employee, and 4) leaving due to the fact that we are no longer doing interesting work with smart people but instead babysitting mindless monkeys.
Still more chances to survive till 55 than winning powerball :(