#oil

With the big jump in oil price, I expected stock price of the oil majors (particularly the ones that don’t ship through the strait) to jump proportionately. They are actually flat or slightly down. Thoughts?

How will the global supply situation affect our business? With refining already facing tough margins, will this have a trickle down effect for jobs?

Trump Pushed for Lower Gas Prices and Got Them. The Oil Industry is Paying the Price.

Jake Conley · Breaking Business News Reporter
Updated Thu, February 26, 2026 at 3:45 AM MST

During his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, President Trump touted an energy industry strengthened by the success of his "Drill, baby, drill" policy, a dual mandate of more hydrocarbon drilling and lower gas prices.
A year into Trump's second term, oil and gas production is at or near all-time highs, and gasoline prices average below $3 per gallon nationally.
But for the US oil and gas industry, the president's ambitions have come at a cost.
"Capital efficiencies and returns drive our investment decisions," said an oil and gas operator responding to the Dallas Federal Reserve's fourth quarter energy survey.
"If economic conditions worsen, drilling and completion activities will cease in 2026."
The US produced 13.78 million barrels per day of oil in November, according to the most recent government data, just barely off the record high recorded in October. Daily dry gas production also hit its highest level on record in November after advancing nine straight months.
At the pump, where crude oil accounts for roughly 50% of the cost of a gallon of gas, Americans are seeing the lower prices Trump campaigned on.
But that record production and those low pump prices have come just as the global oil market has entered a period of deep oversupply of between 2 million and 3 million barrels per day — fundamentals that saw crude oil prices drop roughly 20% through 2025. Prices are up through the start of 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and an improved demand outlook. But they remain several dollars per barrel lower than they were a year ago, and as one respondent to the Dallas Fed survey said, "actual industry costs continue in one direction: up."
"Decreasing oil prices are making many of our firm’s wells noneconomic," another respondent noted. The same dynamic is playing out in the natural gas sector, where the energy product is "becoming an expense to operators," one survey respondent said. "Last month, we paid our gas purchaser to take our gas because prices fell below contract price, and we paid the difference to the purchaser. Never in my 50 years in the oilfield has this ever happened."
Activity in the oil and gas sector — which measures a variety of metrics such as employment figures and capex spending — has now declined for three straight quarters, according to the Dallas Fed, even as production has increased.
The effect is not confined to smaller independent oil and gas drilling firms, which are highly exposed to oil price fluctuations.
Even as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), the country's largest integrated oil and gas operators, increased their production and beat analyst estimates on top-line revenue, both companies recorded year-on-year declines in annual profit as the oil glut depressed prices, shrinking their margins.
One sign that business is struggling in the US: Oilfield services firms such as Halliburton (HAL) and Calfrac Well Services (CFWFF) are increasingly sending their fracking equipment overseas, where demand is stronger, according to data from Primary Vision, first reported by Bloomberg.
The fracking bo-m of the early 2000s made the US the world's largest producer of oil and gas, but the shale industry has been struggling amid declining commodity prices. Nearly one-fifth of the fracking equipment deployed in Texas's Permian Basin has now been shipped overseas, the Primary Vision data shows.
"I think there's incentives to move equipment outside the US, which we're doing in some cases," Halliburton president and CEO Jeffrey Miller said during the company's fourth quarter earnings call in January. "I think the bias is towards, there's not investment in the [US] market in terms of more equipment and equipment is wearing out, which we know, and equipment, in some cases, is moving outside the US."
For the broader energy industry, the picture isn't all gloomy.
The US is about to enter the heavy driving season, when gasoline demand spikes, driving crude oil prices up, and January jobs data far exceeded expectations in another sign of transportation demand.
The federal government's Energy Information Administration now expects natural gas production to grow as new pipelines come online in the Permian basin, with prices expected to increase and incentivize more activity.
Yet, the count of drilling rigs in the US has decreased by roughly 7% year on year, according to data collected by the drill-field services firm Baker Hughes in late February. For US oil and gas upstream producers — the centerpiece of Trump's "Drill, baby, drill" ambitions — more drilling and lower gas prices may push their business the wrong way.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-pushed-for-lower-gas-prices-and-got-them-the-oil-industry-is-paying-the-price-100021352.html

Anything to do with oil seems to be going quickly to Venz. A race for the money. Chevr. already in the game.

Continental needs real production uplift that does not have political risk such as Venezuela or Turkey. What’s next for Continental?
What happens when Hamm retires? Will the new team sell and/or move to Houston?

Is anyone hearing that more layoffs are on the horizon because of cheap oil hitting the markets?

Sorry to say, well drilling gas virtually stopped and jobs are gone. We are in a recession! Cheap Gas isn’t good for oil companies

Expect a lot more layoffs soon. Hearing tons on the street. It will recover in time like it always does, but prepare for some rough years ahead

New business line announced! PSMS for the win! How many people and hours are spent on PSMS? We should have a separate job code for PSMS. The PSMS monstrosity just keeps growing bigger and bigger and bigger.

Low oil prices and slower activity are starting to raise concerns about potential layoffs, but for now, major job cuts don’t appear likely unless market conditions continue to deteriorate after the first quarter.

https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/business/article/permian-basin-jobs-outlook-21293090.php

Story by Jennifer A. Dlouhy and Kevin Crowley

(Bloomberg) -- When Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Darren Woods told President Donald Trump Friday that Venezuela is currently “uninvestable,” he was echoing warnings already issued by oil industry leaders and analysts.

Indeed, some of his peers had tried to dissuade the White House from even holding the meeting, according to people familiar with the matter.

While Trump wants US companies to invest at least $100 billion rebuilding Venezuela’s beleaguered oil sector following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, some executives worry conditions won’t permit a speedy turnaround. They also don’t want their companies cast as opportunistically dividing up Venezuela’s vast crude reserves, believed to be the world’s largest, the people said.

Woods not only attended the meeting of roughly 20 oil industry executives, he spoke his mind. But Trump didn’t appear to appreciate the candor. By Sunday evening, the president was telling reporters he “didn’t like” Woods’ remarks and was inclined to keep Exxon out of Venezuela, saying, “They’re playing too cute.”

“Woods thought he was speaking the truth — and he probably was — but he didn’t read the room,” said Andrew Logan, oil and gas senior director at the CERES climate advocacy nonprofit, who speaks regularly with oil industry investors. “He wasn’t in a position to say that without blowback, and blowback is what he got.”

It was a fresh reminder of the potential pitfalls for the leaders of any company — or country — when summoned to Trump’s White House for a meeting. The president is fond of opening some sessions up for public viewing, giving him a platform to extract concessions from gathered executives or government leaders.

Oil executives, however, have reason to be cautious about Venezuela.

Any bid to significantly boost the country’s recent oil production of nearly 1 million barrels per day — much less reach 1970’s peak of close to 4 million barrels daily — would likely require tens of billions of dollars. Companies would have to rebuild or replace abandoned rigs, leaky pipelines and fire-ravaged equipment. Even beyond the physical challenge, industry representatives say they want to see political and legal reforms enabling them to move money in and out of the country as well as on-the-ground security before they make any big commitments.

“The industry was unified on Friday — with the meeting with the president — that there are going to be certain prerequisites that have to happen before there’s continued investment in Venezuela,” Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, told reporters Monday.

Exxon’s arch-rival Chevron Corp. remains, for now, the only major international oil company operating in Venezuela.

Exxon executives were taken aback by the media’s reaction to Woods’ comments — according to a person familiar with the company’s thinking — given he also told Trump the company was planning to send an assessment team if invited by the Venezuelan government. In addition, Woods expressed confidence the Trump administration could deliver the legal and regulatory reforms needed for any future investment.

Despite Trump’s negative response, administration officials took note of the changes Woods recommended, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the conversations were private. A White House official pointed to the president’s Sunday remarks when asked to comment. Exxon declined to comment beyond Woods’ remarks on Friday.

Woods has become more strident in his public comments in recent years, speaking forcefully in pursuit of his policy goals even when it risks unpopularity with politicians, the media and investors. It’s a departure from former CEO — and Trump’s former secretary of state — Rex Tillerson, who tended to be more conservative in his approach to the company’s image.

“They’re gone from seeing silence as a source of strength to seeing silence as weakness,” Logan said. “It’s been a dramatic shift.”

When Europe was considering new climate and human rights laws last year, Woods was among the first high-profile CEOs to attack them directly. He also pushed back on Trump’s plan to pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement, arguing it would forfeit the chance to press for “common sense” carbon-cutting policy on the world stage.

Most strikingly, Woods took Chevron to international arbitration after its competitor agreed to buy Hess Corp., a deal that would secure a 30% stake in Exxon’s prized oil development off the coast of Guyana, next door to Venezuela. Exxon lost, as most analysts expected, but the case left Chevron in strategic limbo for more than a year. Woods defended his decision to pursue it, saying his company would always seek to protect shareholder rights.

For now, there are no signs the Trump administration will actively dissuade Exxon’s involvement in any Venezuelan reconstruction, should the company choose to pursue it.

As one of the Western oil majors with experience in the country — having left after billions in assets were seized by the government — Exxon is viewed as well-positioned to help. Most of Venezuela’s oil is heavy and sour, making it technically challenging to produce. That could constrain some of the independent oil companies that were more bullish at the White House meeting.

Trump told reporters after Friday’s meeting that “we sort of formed a deal.” But pressed to identify any specific commitments, Energy Secretary Chris Wright pointed to Chevron’s plan to increase its Venezuelan production by roughly 50% over the next 18 to 24 months as the “one specific pledge” from an oil company.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/exxon-s-truth-telling-on-venezuela-shows-risk-of-crossing-trump

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/11/trump-inclined-to-keep-exxonmobil-out-of-venezuela-after-ceo-response-at-white-house-meeting-00721688

Trump's White House meeting of oil execs on Friday to discuss Venezuela just showed the massive difference between Exxon and Chevron. For starters, Chevron's CEO didn't bother showing up, which was an absolute disgrace. Second, when the press was admitted into the meeting, Exxon's Darren Woods articulated the Venezuela challenge clearly and articulately, while Chevron's inadequate proxy of Mark Nelson only wanted to thank the Trump administration, not present to the world what was needed.
It just further illustrated that Chevron's leadership is second rate compared to Exxon, who play chess while Chevron tries to learn how to play checkers.

In 2007 Chavez nationalized all heavy oil. Two of which were Petrozuata and Corocoro that were ConocoPhillips. Venezuela was ordered to pay CP, call it $9 billion for damages. Do you think with the recent US will run Venezuela, CP will be looking to get back in? Then they can hire me again?

World's largest oil reserves are for grabs. Any bets on Exxon?

Not looking good!

Wisdom of the crowd. 2026 looking like a hugely transformative and impactful year.
What does Chevron do well, poorly, and what risks lurk around the corner?

Someone posted a while ago that ExxonMobil might sell Imperial Oil, and another post stated that Imperial Oil might see Kearl.

Now here is the interesting fact: Kearl alone is 19% of ExxonMobil’s total proven reserve. I can bet, no one will dare sell Kearl. The stock price of ExxonMobil and Imperial Oil will just drop to the bottom. So, no one will dare sell Kearl

Here is the calculation from Copilot:

Here’s a refined breakdown of how much of ExxonMobil’s proved reserves come from Imperial Oil and specifically from the Kearl project:

🌍 1. ExxonMobil’s Total Proved Reserves
• At the end of 2023, ExxonMobil reported about 16.93 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in proved reserves 1.

🛢️ 2. Reserves From Imperial Oil
Imperial Oil is approximately 69.6% owned by ExxonMobil 23. Its operated reserves (which include bitumen) are included in Exxon’s broader totals. Notably:
• Exxon’s total bitumen reserves are reported at 2.414 billion barrels 1.
• Since Imperial operates the Kearl and other bitumen assets, it's reasonable to attribute most of that bitumen figure back to Imperial.
Calculation: 2.414 B bbl / 16.93 B bbl ≈ 14.3%
So, roughly 14% of ExxonMobil’s total proved reserves originate from Imperial Oil.

⛏️ 3. Reserves From the Kearl Oil Sands Project
• The Kearl project holds about 4.6 billion barrels of reserves 45.
• Exxon’s effective share of Kearl is through Imperial’s 69.6% ownership; therefore:
• 4.6 B × 0.696 ≈ 3.2 B barrels attributable to Exxon.
• As a percentage of Exxon’s total proved reserves:
• 3.2 B / 16.93 B ≈ 18.9%
Thus, approximately 19% of ExxonMobil's reserves stem from the Kearl oil sands project.

BP sold a majority stake of Castrol to private equity. Do you think we'll make a similar move with Mobil 1?

Rumors have it that very few people took the VSP. Do anyone knows if there might be layoffs coming in early 2026 with the low oil price environment? What are you hearing from your end?

Oil futures are pointing to lower prices. COP will be struggling financially given the downward pricing direction. How do you think senior leadership will lead us through these challenging times?

By America Hernandez and Stephanie Kelly
October 7, 2025

SUMMARY

• Current payouts unsustainable with oil below $80 a barrel

• Crude oil prices expected to continue falling

• Companies under pressure to cut debt

• Reduced buybacks and job cuts announced

PARIS/LONDON, Oct 7 - The five biggest global oil majors are moving to cut costs, jobs and share buybacks as falling oil prices threaten to make shareholder payouts unsustainable without increasing debt, analysts said.

Chevron (CVX.N), ExxonMobil (XOM.N), BP (BP.L), Shell (SHEL.L), and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), have pledged high returns for the past decade to avert an investor exodus as fossil fuels lost their appeal.

But maintaining those generous payouts, which have topped $100 million annually since 2022, has increasingly been funded by debt as energy prices retreated from highs caused by sanctions and supply disruptions in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-price-fall-turns-up-heat-big-oils-bloated-payouts-2025-10-07/

Oil producer Chevron is laying off more than 100 workers in North Dakota after acquiring Hess Corp., a greater impact than initially expected.

https://northdakotamonitor.com/2025/10/08/chevron-cutting-more-than-100-oil-industry-jobs-in-north-dakota-with-hess-merger/

By Michael Kern - Nov 24, 2025, 9:00 AM CST
JP Morgan predicts the international crude benchmark, Brent, could drop into the $30s per barrel by 2027 due to an overwhelming market oversupply.

Goldman Sachs forecasts the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude will average $53 per barrel in 2026 amid a 2 million bpd surplus and advises investors to short oil right now.

The oil market is expected to rebalance in 2027 after the current large supply wave, including output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers in the Americas, works through the system.

The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast posted by users on X.

Brent Crude prices have dropped by 14% year to date, and traded relatively stable at $62.59 per barrel early on Monday, as the oil market awaits news from the renewed negotiations on peace in Ukraine.

The U.S. and Ukraine held on Sunday in Geneva what the two sides described as “highly productive” talks and agreed to continue intensive work on a “refined” peace plan, which the U.S. first proposed last week.

Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.

Peace in Ukraine could also weigh on energy prices as some sanctions and restrictions on Russia could be eased, analysts say.

Oil prices are set to further drop into next year from current levels amid a large surplus on the market, with the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank’s call for next year is that oil prices are on track for further declines and investors should short oil right now, Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week.

The surplus next year will be 2 million bpd on average, Goldman reckons, but notes that 2026 will be the last year of the current big supply wave hitting the market.

The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through,” Goldman’s Struyven added.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/JP-Morgan-Says-Oil-Prices-Could-Plunge-Into-30s-by-2027.html

🪓

"...ConocoPhillips is seeking to drill four exploration wells near its giant Willow discovery this winter, the plans show, marking its return to aggressive exploration in Alaska as construction at Willow progresses with first oil expected in 2029.

The work comes despite the company’s decision this year to cut its workforce globally, including in Alaska, amid low oil prices.

This winter’s program in Alaska illustrates ConocoPhillips’ commitment to the state...."

https://www.adn.com/business-economy/energy/2025/11/11/feds-release-conocophillips-big-winter-exploration-plans-in-alaska-as-critics-denounce-short-comment-period/

MEG is closing soon. What’s next.

It is hard to believe that Alaska has much potential left due to high operating expenses.

EVs in America make up 10 percent of new car sales. In 15 years what does our industry look like? Will they get rid of Galveston bay?

Does FOX News know math?
US produces 13 millions bbl. per year, while Saudi and Russia produce 24 millions combined. How comes the news title showing 13 > 24?

Been following the latest crude oil forecasts and noticing some mixed signals — demand projections softening in parts of Asia, geopolitical risk premiums fluctuating, and inventories looking tighter than expected. Some analysts are projecting a short-term dip before potential recovery next year.

For those closer to planning or market intelligence: How are you interpreting these signals for the next 6–12 months?
How much does short-term crude price movement realistically influence workforce planning at your org, versus broader strategic priorities?

Oil producers go to battle over mineral rights in Arkansas’ Smackover formation

Jamie Smyth in El Dorado, Arkansas

Published
Apr 23 2025

ExxonMobil has defeated an attempt by rival Occidental Petroleum to contest its production rights on one of the largest lithium deposits in the US, as oil companies fight for a foothold in the critical minerals business.

The regulatory battle in Arkansas between two of the largest US oil companies comes as the Trump administration rushes to boost domestic extraction and processing of critical minerals to break American industry’s reliance on Chinese supplies.

Lithium, a crucial ingredient in high-powered batteries used in the electric vehicle and defence industries, is a priority for Washington as Chinese companies process almost two-thirds of the world’s lithium supplies.

Exxon, Equinor and Occidental are among companies racing to develop lithium extraction and processing facilities in the Smackover, a geological formation stretching across Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.          

A US Geological Survey study published in October estimated there was between 5mn and 19mn tonnes of lithium reserves in underwater brines in the south-west Arkansas portion of the Smackover. If commercially recoverable, this would meet the projected 2030 global demand for lithium in car batteries nine times over, it said.

Saltwerx and other producers in the Smackover intend to use direct lithium extraction technology, a process in which lithium is pulled out of brine while leaving other dissolved compounds behind.

There are still questions over whether the technology can be a commercial success when compared to hard rock lithium mining and evaporation ponds, a low-cost technique used in Latin America.

This week Saltwerx, an Exxon subsidiary, was granted the right to establish a 56,000-acre lithium production unit by regulators over the objections of Occidental, which argued it owned minerals rights in the area and had plans to produce lithium.

An Exxon spokesperson said the decision could help unlock the domestic lithium industry, support jobs and strengthen American energy security.

“Attempts to delay progress could jeopardise economic growth for Arkansas and undermine US efforts to reduce dependence on foreign critical minerals,” she said.

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https://www.ft.com/content/7b229e31-692a-4342-8973-3147f6063a99

Saltwerx intends to begin producing lithium in 2028. It forecasts that it can generate $27mn in annual profit from producing 165,000 barrels of lithium brine per day, according to a regulatory filing.      

An Occidental spokesman said the company routinely participated in hearings with state regulators to develop operating agreements that ensured the responsible and fair development of resources for all interest owners.

The commission also approved an application by SWA Lithium, a joint venture between Standard Lithium and Equinor, to establish a rival production unit in south-west Arkansas. Last week the Trump administration selected it as one of 10 critical minerals projects that it would prioritise.

https://www.ft.com/content/7b229e31-692a-4342-8973-3147f6063a99

https://www.google.com/amp/s/boereport.com/2025/10/24/global-energy-layoffs-deepen-in-2025-as-crude-prices-weaken-ma-deals-surge/amp/

The article didn't have cons numbers but we have them now "ConocoPhillips to lay off Canada employees in November, company memo shows
Layoffs part of plan to cut global workforce by 25%"

CEP is somehow taking longer than spinning off an entire downstream company (announced on July 14 2011, completed on May 1, 2012). What an efficient company COP has become!

One more

Considering joining

Exit North Sea ASAP…who in the he-l will buy 3 Billion dollars worth of liability that is now producing less than 12,000 bopd…

Return the assets to BP for abandonment. Bankrupt the company in 2026 and keep the good pieces…. Just like Fieldwood did to Apache…

Heard that there was a last minute upstream communications yesterday afternoon.

Any idea what is that about?

So I am leaving CVX soon but have some great info and would be able to testify for another company who was hurt with the MARs pipeline contamination. Since I am not leaving with a package and will not have to sign anything to leave or get my pension why wouldn’t I reach out to the people who were damaged by CVX. How should I play this out? Oh by the way CVX cheated me out of over $50K of overtime pay so I am not real happy with that outcome either.

This is from 2007-2008 period when Calgary’s job market was hot. Lots of young engineers were quitting Imperial Oil. Imperial was desperate to retain its people. Salary bumps across the board were in double digits (and not the lower double digits).

I remember attending Engineering VP Eddy Lui’s town hall meeting for the engineers and geoscientists. Eddy was explaining how Imperial Oil had a d-mbbell shaped demography curve - lots of people in their very early careers, lots of people at the end of there career, and almost no-one in the mid-career in the company. The reason for this demography was Imperial’s decision to lay off and not hire anyone in the early and mid 90s. Eddy said, “Never again Imperial will make such a mistake!”. In his words, Imperial will hire engineers at a steady pace irrespective of the company’s situation. Eddy and upper management were worried about the future of the company. When the seniors retire, they would leave a vacuum in the company.

Let’s come to the present now. Some of the folks who attended that session are at the top of the company now. I am telling you, you folks will have to repeat Eddy’s comment when no one will come to Imperial Oil when the market recovers. You will be saying, “Never again Imperial will make such a mistake!”.