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A Vote of Confidence for Arvind

Today is a difficult moment for IBM, its employees, its shareholders, and its leadership. Sharp market reactions are never easy, and there will undoubtedly be tough questions in the days ahead.

That said, I have confidence in Arvind. Leading one of the world's largest technology companies isn't about one trading day or one earnings report—it's about making decisions that position the company for long-term success. Every CEO faces setbacks. What matters most is how they respond.

IBM has overcome major challenges throughout its history because its leaders stayed focused on execution, innovation, and serving customers. I believe Arvind and his executive team will learn from this, adapt where necessary, and continue building for the future.

Setbacks are temporary. Leadership is measured over years, not a single day. I'm confident IBM will continue to innovate, compete, and succeed over the long run.


Sinking ship?

Cost of HSI is more than the revenue it generates. 3% HSI customers occupies more than 50% of network capacity.
Hence more layoffs to reduce overall costs.
Stock price stays high bcoz the volume is low average daily is less than 1/10th volume of Verizon or AT&T.
Markets are getting tricked but will this continue?


A tidal wave of SpaceX shares after lockup expiration

This isn’t investment advice. Just sharing something I read because there was a lot of hype around the SpaceX IPO on this very forum.

https://x.com/gnoble79/status/2076080526042038465

The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history

SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you.

Let me walk you through why this IPO is built to separate retail investors from their money:

SpaceX has NEVER turned a profit and lost close to $5 billion last year.

At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x.

30 years ago the head of Sun Microsystems explained in detail why paying even 10x revenue almost always ends in tears, and he was right.

But listen closely, because the valuation is not even the real story.

The scarcity is what CREATED this valuation in the first place, and the calendar that ki-ls the scarcity is what ki-ls the price.

Less than 5% of SpaceX shares were actually available to trade at the IPO. Then the index committees REWROTE their own rules to fast track the stock into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing, which forced every passive fund and index ETF in the country to buy at the exact moment the float was at its tightest. The Nasdaq inclusion alone forced an estimated $4.3 billion of buying, and the Russell reweighting added roughly $3 billion more.

The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory. That's a manufactured squeeze, and it is why the stock went above $225 in its first week.

Now watch what happens next, because this is the part they ain't explaining to you:

The lockup was staggered on purpose, and the entire schedule is sitting in the prospectus for anyone who bothers to read it.

In early August, right after Q2 earnings, 20% of the locked shares come free. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock trades 30% above the $135 IPO price going into the report.

Then tranches of 7% hit the market at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, which means fresh insider supply lands roughly every 2 to 3 weeks from late August through late October.

Q3 earnings triggers the single biggest release of all, another 28%, roughly 1.3 billion shares. On December 8 the 180 day lockup expires entirely. And on June 12, 2027 comes the final wave, when Musk's own 6.4 billion shares, 42% of the whole company, become sellable for the first time.

Add it all up and insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, which would balloon the tradable float by roughly 900%.

All of that supply lands on a stock the company deliberately packed with retail, because SpaceX reserved close to 30% of the offering for individual investors vs the usual 10%.

This deal created over 4,400 paper millionaires inside the company. You think none of them are looking to cash out?

Early holders are already loading up on puts to lock in what they have.

First they keep the float tiny. Then they let the index rules force the world to buy at the top. Then they release a flood of insider stock into a crowd of retail buyers who were handed the shares up high.

When the price finally breaks the offering level, the people who got in years ago at pennies on today's dollar will hit the bid, and the exit liquidity is your retirement account.

And what are you actually left holding? Strip away the science fiction and the only business inside SpaceX that reliably earns money is Starlink, which produced $1.2 billion of operating income last quarter. A wonderful business worth hundreds of billions on its best day. NOT $2 trillion.

Serious fair value work lands around $30 a share.

Nobody has been a bigger bear on this deal than me. I called it out the moment it started trading, and it is already playing out on schedule as the shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print.

I was Peter Lynch's auto analyst back in 1981 and I have watched every disaster since, and I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative.

Tesla was the biggest misallocation of capital in the history of stock markets. SpaceX may have just surpassed it.

SPCX goes straight onto my short list, and the beauty of this setup is that the catalyst is not a guess or something, it is literally a PUBLISHED CALENDAR.

This is the most grossly overpriced stock at scale that I have ever seen.


Ayman + The Board directive

Ayman was given the okay from the board (including approval on HUGE spend) for what is unfolding now for F27. The caveat is that these investments must grow the business in each product group by 2%. To be clear, not an overall %, but each sales BU must show a minimum of 2% increase in sales. This investment is the cost associated with the new GTM planning and execution (a big chunk of that $$ is that all of these leaders now running the geos and various markets plus the new reports to Ayman received huge salary increases amounting to millions), $$ SKO participation, using consulting companies to help get the company on track ..surveys, planning models, etc...). The reason for all of this is the board expects to see the stock double from where it lands after final f26 results announced. The rest is moot. They don't care who resigns, they don't care whether anyone is paid what they are worth, they don't care about cost of living increases. They are going to THROW a huge and ongoing level of pretend value to employees like access to full copilot, fluffy virtual clubs you can join including those for underrepresented employees (women, minorites), surveys to get your opinion, all to convince sellers that they are behind you and your success as you face huge quota increases. Non sellers - if you make it through the end of the calendar year (2 more planned WFRs, names in boxes already), expect fewer peers and more work.

Ayman and the senior leaders get huge $$$ if they make this 2 % increase and if Ayman fails, he and his ELT get replaced.

Expect major increase in inspection.

Board is still making decisions. Ayman is their puppet.


Stock together (now in october) and Rifs..

So I was just sitting here thinking.. Did they move the stock together to October in order to avoid paying them out for a Rif that is planned?

Full disclosure I am not aware of how the payouts for the big Rif worked. Did they accelerate all stock together grants and pay them out?

Why else would this have been moved to October?

Thanks in advance. Hope everyone is surviving out there.


Nike and Wall Street

Why do we keep seeing these bull headlines for Nike with nothing to back it up to show that they can do it. This says Nike could have a 40+ % swing my July of Nike year. What are you thoughts?

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/prediction-nike-stock-set-25-141550863.html


2nd Quarter Earnings Results: Will it be a repeat of last year?

In the past, I worked for and invested in Lockheed Martin for more than 35+ years. I owned the stock when it was only valued @ $17.00 per/sh and still do. LMT is a very well run corporation, and one of the leaders in the Aerospace & Defense sectors. It appears LMT is having on going issues in the production of the F-35. I’m sure they are many: Supply chain, hiring capable/knowledgeable individuals, along with proper project management. My concern is these issues don’t seem to be getting resolved. Also, the huge surprise on a classified program (was it a FFP Contract), that has experienced design integration and test challenges, as well as other performance issues. It would seem to me that this should have been revealed during the last shareholders meeting, as I’m sure these issues were well known at the time.

As reported om May 9th, 2025.

Lockheed Martin’s overall stock score reflects a robust financial performance bolstered by solid revenue growth, efficient cost management, and strong cash flows. The earnings call provided positive insights with significant contract wins and technological advancements, despite some challenges. The stock’s technical indicators and fair valuation further support its stable outlook.


NkE Market Cap Shrinks to 1/5 its Value in 5 Years

Nike Inc
NYSE: NKE
42.38 USD -117.37 (-73.47%) past 5 years
Jul 1, 1:11 PM EST

The USD in real terms is 24.3% less valuable in that same 5 year period, which means NKE market cap has collapsed to less than 1/5 its value 5 years ago.

"Believe in Something, Even if it Means Sacrificing Errr-Thang!"


Srini took us from $270 to sub-$100

When I tried warning everyone to sell at $270, y’all just told me you were buying more.
I really hope it goes back up for you because I still have $9k in it. But I’m ready to call it a loss.
Stock’s already below $100, we’re getting hit with another round of employee cuts this year (remember the “no more big layoffs” promise?), and Srini keeps bleeding the company dry. Insider selling has been nonstop and the shorts are printing.
Some of us saw this coming months ago. The people who got let go tried to tell you. Now we’re all just watching it burn.
How low we going? $99? $80? Who else is still holding and ready to walk away?


Rivian Cuts Staff Amid R2 Launch and Stock Gains

Rivian Automotive Inc. is launching its R2 SUV deliveries. The company expanded its AT&T 5G partnership for the R2 platform. A new ChargeScape deal integrates Rivian EVs into managed-charging programs. Rivian recently laid off hundreds of service and customer operations staff. Despite these layoffs, Rivian's stock trended up by 6.94%.

https://www.timothysykes.com/news/rivian-automotive-inc-rivn-news-2026_06_29/


India Telecom going the way of Polaroid ?

Looks like T got rid of all their talent so they could end up like Polaroid . Same dead management style, same ending . Loaded up with cheap H1B labor because that seems to be the new "in" thing. Thats innovation right there . Push bright intelligent people to use AI so that they can start buying tokens from another company eventually. Thats a real future lol. Looking at the stock price , some would say T is about to slip beneath the waves.


Catastrophic post CP11/covid turnaround

Stock value down 90% post CP11 / covid. Estero down to useless HQ shell. Now we’re supposed to believe Oro and other useless ventures will path us to glory. Going back to basics got us nowhere. More rounds of layoffs this week. Anyone left with half a brain employed at Hertz needs to get the he-l out asap.


In this market, the newest electric car on the lot might be the first one to vanish.

Over the past six months, China has launched 622 new car models. That is not innovation. That is an industry on life support.

Picture a car factory running at half capacity. Assembly lines built for thousands of vehicles a day are operating at less than 50%. The machines are paid for either way. Sitting idle costs more than building something.

That is the real reason behind the flood of new models. Lithium carbonate, the key battery material, crashed from nearly 600,000 RMB per ton to just 80,000. Launching a new car became dramatically cheaper. So factories that cannot sell enough of what they already make simply make something new instead.

But here is the real twist. It is not only about factories. Public car companies face their own pressure. Go six months without launching a new model, and rating agencies may downgrade the stock. So some of these new cars are not built for drivers at all. They are built to keep a stock price alive.

Faster R&D has made this even easier. Skateboard chassis platforms, combined with AI-assisted design, have cut development time from 63 months down to just 12 to 15 months. China did not just make cars cheaper to build. It made it cheap to keep building cars nobody asked for.

So here is the result. Roughly 80% of these 622 models are statistically doomed to disappear. So if you are buying, check who makes the core components, check the brand’s survival odds, and give yourself a three-month cooling-off period before you commit.

In this market, the newest electric car on the lot might be the first one to vanish.

I’m Ling, a tech analyst from China.

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZNRwjAkjy/