#analysis

Why is it above 60s now ?

Are the people who have been hired before, to analyze the company for layoff advice, holding clipboards? If so, saw them at a HQ today.

I only see a few options.

1 - Keep under performing as a smaller, poorly managed Oil & Gas company?
2 - Buy something, incurring more debt?
3 - Sell all or part of Ovintiv now that Anadarko is closed and add in a heavy haricut to reduce headcount?

Good luck everyone.

My analyst su-ks. Who hires these kids?

Just think, it was trading near 170 five years ago. Today it’s trading at 45. Make your own conclusions.

Total opposite of other analysts and certainly no belief in management. Mayo hasn’t been this tough and we know how he feels about BillyBob and his management.

Jefferies initiated coverage on Truist Financial Corp. (NYSE:TFC) with an underperform rating and set a price target of $35.00, representing a significant 23% downside from the current stock price of $45.39. This bearish stance contrasts sharply with the broader analyst consensus of Hold, with price targets ranging from $48.50 to $69.
The firm cited execution risk related to the bank achieving its return on tangible common equity target of 15% in fiscal year 2026, up from 13% in fiscal year 2025. The challenge appears substantial given that Truist’s return on common equity currently stands at just 8% as of the last twelve months. According to InvestingPro analysis, 8 analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, though the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 11.86 and offers a dividend yield of 4.59%.
Jefferies said intensifying competition in the Southeast may hinder loan and deposit growth and add friction to the company’s hiring plans.
The firm noted that even if Truist Financial meets its ROTCE target, it would trail peers at 17% in fiscal year 2027.
Jefferies said the expected performance gap warrants a discounted valuation for the stock.

Lots of analyst predicting it will decline.

What happened at 3pm today? Stock took an instant hit. 1.40 to 1.34 in an hour.
Did lean six sigma or the java ui do this? Is it Fat five beta now? Is there a new jdk ui?

my opinion, complete waste of time. Department trying to justify their wasted "AI" investment.

It reaches 158€ !
Any info on the possible causes ?

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/t/employees/

Not another surprise. Turns out Nielsen was measuring it wrong??

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/413483/nielsen-to-correct-er-i-mean-methodologically-i.html

I'm a natural doer having business results in mind and feel like often times employees at all levels get stuck in overanalyzing minute details that ultimately don't matter toward making a decision. I don't usually have the authority to drop the hammer on these people overanalyzing, but I just want to explode when they go into analysis paralysis. Thankfully I can hide my face on videocam when these people are arguing over minute details or thinking about problems in ways that don't make sense. It's such a morale ki-ler for those of us wanting to get things done.

Chicago, Las Vegas, Honolulu, Tysons Corner, and South Coast Plaza are all top tier locations with lots of foot traffic in the mall and surrounding areas, if these locations are closing, I eventually see all locations going under. Please, if you count on Saks or Neiman's as your main source of income, start looking for a new job, I'm so sad for all the wonderful people I worked in the 24 years I was at Neiman's. Times are changing and not for the better. God bless everyone at Saks and Neiman's stores.

AT&T Debt 2013:
Long-Term Debt (End of 2013): Approximately $69.29 billion.
Total Liabilities (2013): The company had a substantially lower debt burden compared to the post-acquisition peaks

AT&T Debt 2026 (Projected/Early 2026 Data):
Total Debt (End of 2025/Early 2026): $136.1 billion.
Net Debt (End of 2025): $117.4 billion.

California's wine industry is experiencing significant economic and market pressures. U.S. wine revenue and production both declined in 2025. Factors include changing consumer preferences, overproduction, and trade barriers. Several wineries and related businesses have announced closures or layoffs. Constellation Brands and Gallo are among the companies affected by these industry shifts.

https://patch.com/california/healdsburg/why-layoffs-are-spreading-california-wine-country

The recent influx of new hires in Spring, many of whom are early-career professionals, has required significant onboarding support—including mentorship, recognition, plus dedicated workspace and perks—to ensure productivity. In contrast, previous teams delivered results with agility, often relying on strong analytical skills and quick decision-making. It’s worth examining whether current strategies align with long-term business goals, especially given that recent growth may be tied to temporary demand spikes and uncertain future revenue. I had expected the company to maintain a more results-driven, resilient approach.

"Our multi-factor analysis indicates that the time to sell FISV stock might be approaching. We maintain a generally negative outlook on the stock, and a price of $43 could be feasible. We believe there is a near-equal balance of positives and negatives in FISV stock considering its overall Moderate operating performance and financial health. Therefore, despite its Low valuation, this contributes to the perception of the stock as Risky.".......Forbes

https://youtu.be/VlfpfttvatQ?si=I_LgN8bn8RqFvj4U

https://www.uri.edu/news/2026/02/r-i-s-economy-has-disappointing-close-to-year-momentum-dissipated-says-uri-economist/

Thoughts? How is everyone feeling about the ACB numbers?

PE will cash out and sell all real estate and rake in as much profit as they can.

Has the government done any analysis on the potential impact of AI-related layoffs with its rapid advancement over the next 5 years? I’m guessing around 75% of H1Bs may not be needed. When will the emphasis shift toward prioritizing US citizens and Permanent Residents?

Has anyone heard about whether Band 1/2 Evernorth/Carenav analysts (customer service) will be impacted by the layoffs?

All the metrics are about calls and volume of waste, no real outcomes.

The reserves replacement discussion on the earnings investor presentation makes no sense at all. It shows 10 year increases but says RRR was 95%.

Anyhow, last year we really only added reserves from Hess. Otherwise, we are a shrinking business.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4861789-xerox-running-out-of-ink-strong-sell

I am betting on $35.00/share when RTO kicks in for all.
See you on the commute

I mean, our results figures were really not that bad. What gives?

IBM isn't a healthy company

https://techrights.org/n/2026/01/29/IBM_s_Financial_Performance_in_IBM_s_Own_Words_Money_Down_Debt_.shtml

Arista annual sales are close to 9~10B with approx 4500 employees, while Cisco annual sales are 56B with 86000 employees. To compare it - Arista is doing 20% of Cisco sales with 5% of employees. Conclusion is simple: Cisco has too many redundant employees.

If it hits $360, that means it's time to exit my position.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ibm-stock-price-top-pick-2026-35af20b3

By: Mackenzie Tatananni
Updated Jan 08, 2026, 2:59 pm EST / Original Jan 08, 2026, 2:15 pm EST

Skeptics may argue that International Business Machines has lost the clout it had decades ago, but one analyst is doubling down on his bullish bet on the stock heading into the new year.

Much of the negative noise surrounding IBM appears to be unfounded, according to Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh, who has chosen IBM as one of his top picks for 2026. He rates the stock at Outperform with a $360 price target.

IBM stock was 2.1% higher at $303.04 on Thursday as the Nasdaq Composite traded in the red. Singh’s price target suggests the stock can rise another 19%.

Attitudes on the stock are indubitably mixed. Of 22 analysts polled by FactSet, 11 rate IBM at Buy, while seven rate it at Hold, and four at Sell. So why the vote of confidence?

“Bears have the estimates wrong, making expectations low into the print,” Singh said, referring to IBM’s fourth-quarter earnings report due later this month. He believes IBM can deliver durable growth by consistently raising prices, and described its portfolio of software as “sticky,” meaning clients repeatedly return to the products even though alternatives exist.

IBM has been winning bigger contracts because it has more products and services to offer, largely driven by acquisitions and the rollout of new mainframe computers. Last year, it paid $6.4 billion for HashiCorp, a provider of infrastructure and security tools, and has had early success integrating those offerings into its portfolio.

Taken together, these factors could boost overall revenue by 6% and software revenue by 9% in 2026, Singh said. His call for revenue growth is double the consensus forecast on Wall Street and nearly double the call for growth in software revenue.

“We believe IBM will positively surprise the bears on its earnings through the year, driving upside to the stock,” Singh said.

That comes after a decent run in 2025, a year dominated by the conversation around artificial intelligence. Shares rose 35% last year, behind a 39% gain for AI heavyweight Nvidia but ahead of a 20% gain for the Nasdaq.

There already are signs 2026 will be a good year. Despite recent chatter, Oppenheimer’s checks show little to no customer attrition, even as IBM passes along a 6% price hike to customers renewing enterprise license agreements.

And then there is IBM’s consulting division, which has become a significant contributor to revenue. Singh and the Oppenheimer team see little evidence of a pullback on spending, although software is expected to continue to grow more rapidly

Software revenue is expected to achieve sustained, double-digit percentage growth as opposed to “low-single-digits” for IBM’s consulting arm, Oppenheimer said.

Barron’s wrote favorably on IBM for a different reason in December: the company’s burgeoning quantum-computing division. Big Blue was an early entrant in the space, and aims to release a fault-tolerant quantum supercomputer by the end of the decade. That would be an industry first.

From 1.5 million to 1.3 million. Not terrible, until you read further that 2/3 of that 1.3 million were automatically enrolled from 2025. Which means they likely haven’t paid the premium yet. Thus, that 1.3 number is expected to drop once the bill comes due and is significantly higher than 2025. Waiting to see what the numbers in Florida look like.

Verizon Strategic Growth Analysis: Competing for the Top Line
Note

This document analyzes Verizon's position relative to T-Mobile and AT&T as of late 2024/early 2025, focusing on strategies to improve top-line revenue.

Executive Summary
Verizon faces a bifurcated challenge: defending its premium user base against T-Mobile's aggressive value-plus-performance attacks while igniting new growth engines to match AT&T's fiber momentum. To improve the top line, Verizon must pivot from being a "utility" provider to a "platform" provider, leveraging its massive 5G Ultra Wideband investment for high-ARPU services in both consumer (FWA, Bundles) and enterprise (Private 5G, MEC) segments.

1. Competitor Landscape: The "Big Three" Dynamics
   Feature Verizon (The Premium Defender) T-Mobile (The Growth Engine) AT&T (The Balanced Builder)
   Primary Strength Network reliability brand equity, massive B2B base. "Un-carrier" value proposition, 5G mid-band spectrum lead. Fiber footprint + Mobility cross-selling.
   Top-Line Strategy Yield over Volume. Focus on ARPA (Account Revenue Per Account) via "myPlan" upsells and perks. Strong FWA push. Volume + Value. Aggressive net adds (Postpaid), attacking rural markets, and entering fiber via JVs. Convergence. Bundling Fiber + Wireless to reduce churn and boost LTV (Lifetime Value).
   Weakness Consumer postpaid net adds have historically lagged. Perception of "expensive". Lack of owned fiber assets (relying on partnerships/acquisitions like Lumos/Metronet). Debt load remains a factor; legacy wireline decline.
2. Strategic Pillars for Top-Line Growth
   A. Consumer Wireless: The "myPlan" Average Revenue Per Account (ARPA) Lever
   Verizon cannot win a price war with T-Mobile. It must win on value density.

Strategy: Aggressively migrate base to "myPlan" tiers. By decoupling perks (Disney+, Apple One, Walmart+) from the base rate, Verizon turns low-margin "freebies" into a recurring revenue marketplace.
Action:
Increase "perk" penetration to drive ARPA up by $2-3/mo per user.
Target the "Switcher Pool" with premium device on us offers only on the highest tier plans (Unlimited Ultimate).
B. Broadband: FWA as the "Gatekeeper"
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is Verizon's fastest-growing segment. It is the key to winning households where Fios doesn't exist.

Strategy: Position 5G Home Internet not just as a "cheap" alternative, but as a "smart home" hub.
Action:
Bundle Deeply: Offer significant discounts for FWA + Mobile subscribers to lock in the household (churn reduction = sustained top line).
SMB Expansion: Aggressively market FWA Business Internet to small businesses currently stuck on expensive cable legacies.
C. Enterprise (B2B): Private 5G & MEC Focus
Verizon historically owns the Fortune 500 relationship. This is the biggest differentiator against T-Mobile.

Strategy: Move beyond connectivity to managed industry solutions.
Action:
Private Networks: Scale "Network in a Box" solutions for logistics, manufacturing, and stadiums.
MEC (Mobile Edge Compute): Monetize low latency. Collaborate with AWS/Azure to sell "cloud at the edge" for real-time AI inference (e.g., computer vision in factories).
Public Safety: Compete with AT&T's FirstNet by leveraging Frontline's superior mmWave capacity in dense urban centers.
D. Innovation: The API Economy
The industry is moving toward "Programmable Networks" (GSMA Open Gateway).

Strategy: Monetize the network ITself via APIs.
Action:
Sell "Quality on Demand" (QoD) APIs to broadcasters, drone operators, and gaming companies who will pay a premium for guaranteed throughput/latency slices.
Implement "Silent Authentication" APIs to banks for fraud prevention (replacing SMS 2FA), creating a high-margin B2B2C revenue stream.

1. Summary of Recommendations
   Stop chasing empty calorie net adds; focus on High Value adds who take phones + watches + home internet.
   Accelerate the "Platform" narrative: You aren't just selling data; you are selling the ability to run real-time AI at the edge.
   Defend the Enterprise Moat: Use Private 5G to make Verizon indispensable to industrial operations, locking out T-Mobile.

This sums it up very nicely:

'The company’s overemphasis on Payments left core banking clients underserved, while execution fatigue weighed on growth and valuation'

From :
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fiserv-inc-fisv-bull-case-212326330.html

“Back at the All-In Summit, David Friedberg asked Musk: "Could you buy some carriers to acquire more spectrum? Maybe buy Verizon?"

Musk replied: "Not out of the question. I suppose that may happen."

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/spacex-trademark-filing-signals-starlink-mobile-may-soon-take-aim-att-verizon

Manufacturing and mining-related industries are becoming riskier as companies reduce costs and adjust production.

Procrastinators of layoff doom, here is a record of totals for Ford employees.

I will post the link again when the 2025 numbers are updated.

Let see how correct the predictors of large layoffs for 2025 actually were.

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/f/employees/

Everybody should be preparing for potentially being let go. If you don't see the writing on the wall, I feel sorry for you.

WMT’s comparable sales up 4.5%, TJX comparable sales up 5%, TGT comparable sales down 2.7%.

How is Fiddelke going to spin this?