#interestrates

The mortgage sector is anticipating more layoffs and reduced hiring due to persistently high interest rates and compressed profit margins. Lenders who expanded their workforce early in the year are now reassessing their staffing levels as refinance hopes have faded. Increased efficiency from AI and complex product mixes also contribute to the need for leaner operations. Analysts suggest that consolidation may become a more common strategy for companies struggling with profitability. This trend follows significant workforce reductions seen since the market's post-pandemic peak.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mortgage-layoffs-expected-to-rise-as-rates-remain-high-margins-stay-thin/

After 27 years with ExxonMobil I was given NSI this cycle. I was told on Tuesday of this week. I am fortunately retirement eligible, but was hoping to work for a couple of more years. I’m reaching out to understand how I would be able to claim unemployment after all is said and done. I was leaning toward retirement (as my manager is horrendous and I don’t think I would pass a PIP) and planning to defer my pension as I am not yet 60 and was betting on interest rates going down in the next few years. If I “retire” and defer the pension, would I still be able to claim unemployment? From my research, I believe I could do so, but want input from those that have been through it. If I do claim unemployment, will ExxonMobil fight me on it? Will it affect any other benefits such as retiree medical? Do I have to go through the PIP (and fail) to be able to claim? Any other guidance would be greatly appreciated.

Once what was a fulfilling career to support clients and their G2 G3 on their journey to and thru retirement has now turned into an exercise of making sure to click the required buttons to get credit for making sure you get the '"income". What is missing is that the clients are not getting the "outcome" that is in their best interest. Not to mention that G2 and G3 has become a non event when we push products because we have to hit numbers. Way too many "coaches" that have never been in a client facing role and never will be. Combined with Branch managers that manage to maximize their pay/shares, it's just a matter of time before AI takes over once was a highly skilled job and creates more value for the Johnson family.

Accrued $928 million and paying 10% interest per year on a base of $833 million.

Here is the Teradata Scoreboard (From ChatGPT)
Q1 2025 Customers are cautious, more eyes on every deal
↓
Q2 2025 Deals slip into next quarter
↓
Q3 2025 Lake adoption is taking longer
↓
Q4 2025 Customers want ROI first
↓
Q1 2026 AI projects were progressing deliberately as customers established governance and production readiness
↓
Q2 2026 Enterprise buying cycles remained elongated, with customers taking longer to commit to AI investments despite continued interest

what is the new rewards program for belk charge cards, it will start in august or september but belk is being tight lipped about it. some are saying it will be less rewards and customers will have a 39% interest rate.

Layoffs are expected to accelerate this near into next as the company shifts to AI. Several "reorgs" in waves to be expected according to insiders close to SF. Interest rates are not coming down as quickly as expected and this is putting pressure on not being able to refinance the debt load at lower rates as wages pressures and benefit costs accelerate.

The New York Fed reports AI is not the main cause of the current hiring slowdown. Elevated interest rates and past overhiring play a major role. The Fed's analysis shows broad labor weakness, not automation, explains the trend. Most firms adopting AI are retraining workers, not initiating layoffs. Startups should focus on capital costs and macroeconomic pressures over AI fears.

https://startupfortune.com/new-york-fed-data-says-ai-is-not-driving-the-hiring-slowdown/

You may want to check the balance on your ExxonMobil gas card account.

When we swapped over to the new company which handles our paychecks someone forgot to check a box. The money was taken from the paychecks but never sent to the credit card company for payment.

While some employee's balances have been paid...............I am finding the majority have not. Interest is being charged.

You cannot tweet you way out of 23% of world oil, 48% nat gas, and 4.5/5.0% 10 yr bond rate.

As the article clearly states, we are no longer in the era of low interest rates and over-valuation. Therefore, there isn't a "route" for Avaya (as there was in 2018 after the first BK when rates were historically low). There really is no digging out this time. The window of relevance has passed. #Apollo can only be so lucky to be able to dump Avaya for 20-30 cents on the dollar if it's purported overvaluation.

...Apollo executive John Zito said private equity firms are broadly misstating the value of their software holdings, telling UBS clients last month that "all the marks are wrong."
Zito warned that lenders to smaller software companies could recover as little as 20 to 40 cents on the dollar, implying deep losses.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/16/apollo-john-zito-private-equity-software-valuations.html

The NDA bait & switch they are pulling are a result of the Apollo audit firm(s) diligently attempting to tidy-up Avaya's books to get anyone to take the sinking depreciating asset. The only person who is still hoping for a fool to buy Avaya is PD so he can get his pay day, along with the other "board member" who has an inflated "C" title (the one who would be out on their ear for lack of results if not for the board seat).

Fed Interest rates -

Having studied the past several Major recessions (dotcom bust - Mar 2000 - Oct 2002, and 2008 GFC included), this is what I found.

When the Fed started cutting Interest rates (and kept it going) it signaled the start of a Major recession.

The (current) Fed quandary is rising Inflation which will get (Much worse) with the (new) 15.0% Trump Import tariffs, and the U.S. Iran War causing energy prices (both Oil, and LNG) to rise; which also affects both product; and food prices.

When the Fed started doing that it signaled the U.S. economy was in (Very serious) trouble.

LEI - Leading Economic Index (6 months out), and the CEI - Coincident Economic Index (current) the (True) state of the U.S. economy.

For the past several months, the LEI has (Consistently trended Down) and has fallen below the CEI; the chart shows that the U.S. economy should be (or is headed towards a Major recession) within 6 months; or so (if current trends continue).

U.S. GDP is (currently) being (manipulated positive) by spending - U.S. government, AI; and Healthcare; along with Fed stimulus.

These are the facts.

2013 changes to risk capital largely led banks to withdraw from the market. Now its companies like Rocketmortage. This has led to higher mortage rates because banks have cheaper funding (deposits).

Fed is going to change the rules so to incentivize banks to re enter the market, both the risk weights for mortages and mortage servicing rights.

Itll be a growth market for banks.

Too bad chainsaw charlie doesnt know how to grow a business and after 5 years of bi weekly thrashing to the corporate culture no one wants to work at Wells Fu----u

They just borrowed another 475m at an 7.5% interest and a 2% royalty on top!

They call it a joint venture.

ROFL

Juan’s outreach to the Member about how USAA will make their dollar go further is laughable. The Bank pays sh-t interest, charges predatory rates on credit cards and loans, insurance is well into the highest range. This maudlin we well get you through these tough times is spot on the Schooner Tuna ad from Mr Mom, which is comical in its form. The Tuna with a heart. Did we fire the ad people?

*S Labor Department Reports Jobless Claims Remain Low at 200,000
by MSN News:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/us-jobless-claims-steady-at-200000-in-sign-of-low-layoffs/ar-AA1UK1Gb

US initial jobless claims rose slightly to 200,000 last week. This figure, for the week ended January 17, indicates a labor market with limited layoffs. The four-week moving average of new applications fell to a two-year low of 201,500. Continuing claims also dropped to 1.85 million, the lowest since November. Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to maintain current interest rates next week.

Interest rates aren’t going to get any lower anytime soon. Early 2026 is a good time to retire

https://investors.xerox.com/static-files/adf78906-cdf0-4fef-b8ce-21264d06bd9b

Debt servicing on the interest is up to around $1.1 million a DAY! Each and every day, this is not going away. Not principal, just the interest. Under 'Total Interest expense.'

That''s 400 million a year, just on the vig.

It stimulates economic growth.

Businesses start spending. When businesses spend, they hire more employees. When companies hire more employees, the job market improves. When the job market improves, everyone will leave for greener pastures.

Bye bye!

Yes, we are back in business, interest rates going down, there will be more hiring and promotions to fill empty(fired) positions soon, heard from a reliable source