#economy

NIKE IS DONE!!!
WE 3 BAD CEOS MP JD EH
AND WITH BAD ECONOMY, I THINK THAT MOST CONSUMERS ARE CHANGIN THEIR TASTE.
MOST YOUNG PEOPLE ARE BROKE AND THERE IS NO YOUNG CUSTOMER BEING CONVERTED TO NIKE CREEDO.

DEAD AND BURIED!!!

These past few years have been a wild ride, and this place has gone so far downhill that I can't even work up anxiety about being laid off anymore. Sure, I'm vaguely worried as the job market is brutal, and the economy is shaky, but I don't have the energy or the attachment to this job to really panic.

Texas added nearly 47,000 nonfarm jobs in March. This marked a reversal from February's job losses. Mining, logging, and professional services saw notable gains. The state's unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. This trend mirrored national job market improvements.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/economy/article/texas-adds-jobs-march-bleak-february-22236672.php

Remember when you'd apply and actually hear back? Not anymore. Now all I get is silence. And most of the jobs on LinkedIn aren't even real. They're phantom postings that go nowhere. The only way I see people actually getting hired is through networking. Someone knows someone who knows someone. That's it. The economy is really bad and the old methods don't work anymore.

Weekly requests for unemployment aid dropped. The number decreased by 11,000 to 207,000. This figure remains consistent with recent years. The labor market shows a "low-hire, low-fire" trend. High inflation and elevated gas prices persist.

https://www.kaaltv.com/ap-top-news/ap-top-news-business/us-jobless-claims-fall-last-week-as-layoffs-remain-low-despite-global-economic-uncertainty/

Governor Tina Kotek formed the Oregon Prosperity Council to address the state's sluggish economy. The 16-member council is tasked with developing policy recommendations. Two labor-affiliated members recently released a report advocating a "high road" approach to growth. This report contrasts with business groups pushing for tax breaks and deregulation. The council is expected to deliver its final recommendations by June 30.

Oregon

https://www.opb.org/article/2026/04/16/oregon-economy-prosperity-council-kotek/

Emporia's jobless rate remained steady at 5.6 percent. This rate covers the period between January and February. Lyon County's unemployment rate slightly increased to 5.4 percent. These figures do not yet reflect recent company layoffs. The statewide jobless rate also held steady at 3.9 percent.

Emporia, Kansas

https://kvoe.com/2026/04/17/emporia-jobless-rate-holds-steady-between-january-and-february/

Midland's labor market remained consistent in February. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.3%. This rate was the lowest among all Texas metropolitan areas. No mass layoff notices were reported for the region. Midland added 400 nonfarm jobs during the month.

https://www.mrt.com/news/article/midland-tx-unemployment-rate-february-22212518.php

Illinois experienced only slight job growth last year. Its unemployment rate remained among the highest nationwide. In January, 319,000 Illinoisans sought work without success. The state added 7,900 jobs from January 2025 to January 2026. This 0.13% increase was below the national average.

Illinois

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-posted-slow-job-growth-last-year/

Since everyone been saying its all doom and gloom

Would there even be a Walmart without China?

There are a lot of pre-cursors (building over time) to the "Roaring 1920's ending" October 1929, the "Internet bubble burst" March 2000; and the "Global Financial Crisis" September 2008.
Fed stimulus will (most likely) end by mid-April (with Higher Energy costs impacting their positive effects on the U.S. economy) with the U.S. Treasury (also) stopping its' purchasing of its' own bonds by then.

Tax refunds were substantial overall for 2025, but again as mentioned; Energy prices will remain high (for months, or longer) especially with the most recent escalation of the U.S. Iran War.

The Fed has also printed an additional $125.0 Billion in currency since January 2026 (in an attempt) to prop-up the U.S. economic-financial system.

Yes, this does add on to the (current) $39.1 Trillion U.S. National debt (and rising), as does; the U.S. Iran War; and contributes to (rising) Inflation costs as well (over time).

The (Real) U.S. economy heading into 2027 is what to watch.

Current trends dictate strain on the U.S. economic-financial system with layoffs (2026 > 2027) increasing over time.

An economy that rewards hard work and loyalty with more hard work and no economic gain is insane.

No surprise there. I've been trying to make a job switch for months. The job market right now is as bad as I've ever seen it. What does that tell you?

U.S. Iran War -

• Israel struck earlier today.

  This is after the "Ceasefire".

• The U.S. Iran War is (far from over due to the ongoing hostilities between Israel-Iran).

  At 1:00pm CST (today), Iranian drones struck the Saudi Arabian East-West pipeline.

• Reported by oilprice, this (was) the (7-million barrel a day go around) for the Hormuz Strait (which is now essentially closed).

U.S. Economy - LEI - Leading Economic Index (Chart).

Oil Prices are (not) coming down, anytime soon; and it will weigh on the U.S. economy; and consumer spending (70.0% of GDP).

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/economy/policy/articles/doritos-prices-jumped-50-four-200242097.html

Arizona's job market remains under pressure. The state shed 19,400 jobs over the past year. Its unemployment rate reached 4.5% in January. This figure surpassed the national rate of 4.3%. It is the first time Arizona's rate exceeded the national average in 30 months.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/jobs/2026/04/07/arizona-unemployment-tops-us-average-mass-layoffs-march/89485208007/

Layoffs are increasing in North Carolina. This trend is for the year 2026. State-reported data confirms the rise. Layoffs are ticking up compared to last year. Specific company details are not provided.

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2026/04/07/epic-games-wells-fargo-therm-fisher-layoffs.html

Remember when oil execs gave DT $1B… was that in exchange for this war?

Oil booming again following that weird rambling, low energy, slurred speech last night.

So much nonsense from our fearless leader. Economy- great! Employment-great! We are making sure that these plebs are sitting on sidelines and begging for giveaways. We are national bank, mentioning California big no-no. This is making normal person”s blood boiled. Such a disgrace.

You cannot tweet you way out of 23% of world oil, 48% nat gas, and 4.5/5.0% 10 yr bond rate.

Oil prices, and U.S. jobs created (nationally) -

• 2025 - 125,000 Total - Revised downwards from 181,000.

• 2026 - 34,000 Total - Non-Revised.

Higher Energy prices will remain for months (or longer) even if the U.S. Iran War ends (in the future) due to numerous factors including (the already damaged Energy infrastructure in the Mideast) with Iran remaining in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

• The U.S. will see  Oil prices (the highest) during the Summer peak season, Asia; and Europe; will see it first-now.

LNG not so much in the U.S. but that also applies as well.

• The U.S. economy, and (Wall Street) are (currently) underestimating the effects of higher Oil; and LNG prices to a lessor extent, on consumer spending; and jobs.

It will (not if) affect numerous product pricing, and supply chains; in virtually every industry.

https://youtube.com/shorts/umJyw6g9R1g?is=l2eEP_CMCFZvKHMI

Is it possible? When do you think it will happen?

No matter how often you refer to us as “resources”

Lots of analyst predicting it will decline.

Louisiana recorded 1,232 initial unemployment filings. This data covers the week ending March 14. This figure is 0.6% lower than the previous week. Initial claims were also 19% lower than last year. Continued claims fell to 6,260, a 44% decrease from last year.

https://www.businessreport.com/article/fewer-layoffs-for-now-louisiana-jobless-claims-are-nearly-20-lower-than-2025

What happened at 3pm today? Stock took an instant hit. 1.40 to 1.34 in an hour.
Did lean six sigma or the java ui do this? Is it Fat five beta now? Is there a new jdk ui?

Per Barrons, Chevron has moved into top 20 valued American companies bc of Iran and analysts say oil will be in triple digits for years.

All that value will trickle down to us lowly ants, right?

Right?

If you want to know where the U.S. economy is (Truely) headed in the next 12 months.

Take a look at the (Conference Board) LEI - Leading Economic Index.

The U.S. National debt -

• Under Trump just blew past $39.0 Trillion (and rising).

It has grown $1.0 Trillion since late October 2025 (5 months).

• Cumulated Interest per year paid by U.S. taxpayers is now $993.0 Billion a year (and rising) to outside Investors who finance it (U.S. based, Japan; China; etc.) per usdebtclock.

Wars are (Very costly) and will (not if) move this much higher, coupled with Corporate Tax breaks; and for the wealthy over 10 years ($600.0 Billion from the Trump Tax bill).

This will (not if) affect the U.S. economy in a (Very negative) way as time moves along.

These are the facts.

Many workers are now choosing to stay in their current jobs. This trend reflects a slowing job market and reduced worker confidence. The expected quit rate dropped to a decade low of 15.9% in February. Employers also cut 92,000 jobs in February, raising labor market concerns. A low quit rate typically signals slower wage growth and fewer opportunities.

http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/india/workers-hold-on-to-jobs-as-layoffs-rise-and-quit-rate-falls-to-decade-low/ar-AA1XVJVE?apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1

This is not a post about AI. I barely do any feature work anymore. I feel like with everything happening in the US and the global situation, I just have zero motivation to work or produce work for these companies. Just waiting to see how long I can keep this going, wondering how many are on the same boat.

With everything going on it's hard to take anything seriously anymore. And knowing that my company is trying everything they can to replace me with either AI or someone offshore doesn't make me interested in helping them fulfill their profit goals.

At the same time, I don't want to lose my job in this economy either. But how do you stay motivated like this?

As CVX price and bbl go up with the multiple conflicts, will that save us from additional layoffs?
Or is this short term?

SAVE YOUR MONEY! STAGFLATION - High Oil Prices, AI taking over jobs, Layoffs will occur earlier than later. Corporations will feel the pain with increase in inflation. Markets will decline for months. Just because the war stops doesn't mean things get back to normal right away. It will take years to recover and go back to normal. USA debt increases from $38 Trillion to $40 Trillion soon.

Many companies will pull forward their layoffs that were planned for later on the year (in the second half of 2026) to the first half of 2026 due to oil price increases and the cost of war, inflation causing everything to go up.
Save your money. Forget the vacation and brand name anything. Save enough money to pay your bills and put food on the table. AI was already taking jobs and now higher cost of OIL will also do the same.

Fed Interest rates -

Having studied the past several Major recessions (dotcom bust - Mar 2000 - Oct 2002, and 2008 GFC included), this is what I found.

When the Fed started cutting Interest rates (and kept it going) it signaled the start of a Major recession.

The (current) Fed quandary is rising Inflation which will get (Much worse) with the (new) 15.0% Trump Import tariffs, and the U.S. Iran War causing energy prices (both Oil, and LNG) to rise; which also affects both product; and food prices.

When the Fed started doing that it signaled the U.S. economy was in (Very serious) trouble.

LEI - Leading Economic Index (6 months out), and the CEI - Coincident Economic Index (current) the (True) state of the U.S. economy.

For the past several months, the LEI has (Consistently trended Down) and has fallen below the CEI; the chart shows that the U.S. economy should be (or is headed towards a Major recession) within 6 months; or so (if current trends continue).

U.S. GDP is (currently) being (manipulated positive) by spending - U.S. government, AI; and Healthcare; along with Fed stimulus.

These are the facts.

Year on Year Record Corporate Profits no longer translates to job creation but rather job elimination.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-layoffs-deflation-us-economy-job-market-outlook-citi-2026-2

Consequences of AI -

AI has (some) innovations, but.

AI will replace (most, not all) computer dependent jobs (that can be) in the future, (easily) in the Millions over time; through automation efficiencies.

AI will take away Tax revenues (from those employees that were replaced) who contribute to consumer spending which will (not if) have a very Negative impact on the U.S. economy.

AI will create (some) high paying jobs, but unless Taxes are Increased on Corporations; and the wealthy; there will (not if) be a Major shortfall in Tax revenue.

The U.S. National debt is (currently) $38.7 Trillion (and rising) per usdebtclock, with $990.0 Billion a year in Interest paid by U.S. taxpayers to outside Investors (U.S. based, Japan; China; etc.) that finance it over time.

Wars are (Always) costly over time (but sometimes necessary to defend U.S. National security), and the U.S. National debt will spike because of it.

These are the facts.

Treasury yields are declining amid signs that U.S. employers are retaining workers. Weekly jobless claims rose to 212,000. This figure was below economists' expectations of 215,000. The 10-year yield fell to 4.039%. The two-year yield also declined to 3.467%.

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-022626/card/treasury-yields-decline-as-u-s-layoffs-remain-elusive-cQ7S9mWF9puLUqEWI92p?modCode=hp_LEDE_C_LC_1&gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfX_YIfuQa5Ca5WG66rFZPUG1GRxm3INy6W67CZxMQh_p4H5zygHiXo&gaa_ts=69a07f82&gaa_sig=6nxh6zbqGCOF--T1eFe4jomaRmICcFXe6MD1Gnl8i161uhSOt64UD1BPzRoxB9FxA5-KB3cb4POt5V7cTR-sEQ%3D%3D