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When Markets Cooperate but Results Don’t

Phillips 66 owns a refining system that should be capable of delivering durable, peer-leading returns. The assets are advantaged, the footprint is diverse, and the workforce is experienced. Yet over the past several years, refining has remained a primary source of earnings volatility and inconsistent performance, rather than a stabilizing value engine.

That outcome ultimately sits with leadership.

Under Rich Harbison, Phillips 66 refining has not consistently translated operational capability into shareholder value. While individual sites often perform well, the system as a whole has struggled to demonstrate sustained margin capture or downside protection relative to best-in-class peers such as Valero.

This is not simply an operational issue—it is a commercial and leadership failure.

Phillips 66 frequently points to favorable market cracks and commercial optionality as evidence that refining should perform well. But market cracks do not create value on their own. Value is created when trading, optimization, and asset operations work together to capture those signals consistently and manage volatility when conditions turn.

That responsibility extends beyond refining leadership to the commercial organization.

Under Brian Mandell and Mark Hughes, Phillips 66 has expanded its commercial and trading footprint and repeatedly described it as a differentiator. The implication is clear: stronger trading capability should enhance margin capture and smooth earnings.

The results do not support that claim.

Despite periods of attractive market cracks, Phillips 66 has failed to consistently convert market structure into superior refining returns. Upside capture has been uneven. Downside exposure has been abrupt. Trading appears unable to reliably translate market opportunity into durable value at the enterprise level.

When trading cannot deliver the value implied by the market environment, it ceases to be a hedge or differentiator and becomes just another source of noise layered onto an already volatile business.

This raises uncomfortable questions about focus and accountability.

Valero’s advantage is not just asset quality—it is clarity. Its leadership team is singularly focused on refining and commercial execution. There are no competing internal priorities, no portfolio narratives to balance, and no ambiguity about what success looks like. That focus shows up in more consistent margin capture and more reliable shareholder outcomes.

Phillips 66, by contrast, splits leadership attention across refining, marketing, a growing trading organization, midstream, and chemicals. In that environment, refining leadership must be forceful and commercial leadership must be exceptional. Instead, the system appears fragmented, with no one clearly accountable for turning market opportunity into sustained returns.

This is not a workforce problem. Refineries run. Traders trade. Commercial teams work hard. The issue is coordination, discipline, and leadership effectiveness at the top.

When refining volatility continues to dominate results, when market cracks fail to translate into value, and when trading is invoked more often as an explanation than as a solution, accountability becomes unavoidable.

Phillips 66 has the assets.
It has the markets.
What it lacks is leadership leverage.

Until refining and commercial leadership are held accountable for profitability, volatility management, and peer-relative capture—not just activity and presence—refining will remain a source of frustration rather than a foundation for shareholder value.

The assets deserve better integration.
Shareholders deserve better outcomes.


Form K-8 SEC Filing - Please help me understand.

So today a new form was published via the SEC, that explains that every shareholder would get 1 x Warrant pr. 2 x shares they hold on the 9th of Feb.

One warrant allows the holder to purchase 1 x Xerox share for $8 within the next two years.

This part I understand, meaning they are only valuable in this form should our stock increase with 400% over the next 2 years.

The last part is where I’m not sure:
The warrants may be exercised for cash at any time prior to expiration.

What does that mean?


more financial fu-kery from the non-producers

The company announced a 20% dividend increase and a new $6 billion stock buyback program.

Someone ran a piece a few days ago about Chinese automaker BYD raising $5 billion to expand all over the place. New factories, new dealerships, very aggressive moves to increase global market share.

General Motors has even bigger plans - a giant new Stock Buyback and Shareholder Dividend Flimflam! Yay! USA! USA! USA!


Stanley siphons off Shareholder Wealth

For himself and the people behind the curtains. The goal is to strip this thing down to bare minimum costs, maintain a revenue stream and healthy cash flow and dump it off private equity style. He most certainly doesn't work for shareholder or the stock price. The men behind the curtains pull his strings.


Shareholder Value

Over the last 30 days our stock has lost just under $5B in value. Clearly the market can see through the smoke screen that is being throwing up! Sadly, the layoffs aren’t starting where they should…with Stinkey!


Layoffs are expected after shareholders approved Fifth Third’s acquisition of Comerica.

Comerica’s CEO framed the merger as a move toward innovation and growth, but the deal is also expected to bring layoffs. The bank has not disclosed how many Michigan workers could be affected, saying it is focused on creating a stronger, more competitive organization.

https://www.woodtv.com/news/michigan/layoffs-likely-as-shareholders-approve-fifth-third-acquisition-of-comerica/


Class A limited partnership - no more profits

Have you read the new partnership agreement? Class A shareholders will only get the 7.5% payments and that's it. No more variable profits.

Only Class B shareholders will get the variable profits (but no guaranteed payments at all).

It also talks about public offerings. Oh but we're not for sale, right? Funny how from what I can see, that piece wasn't in previous LP documents.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815917/000119312525266808/ck0000815917-ex3_1.htm


If anyone needs some good news today…

Warner Bros Discovery has urged shareholders to reject a $108.4bn hostile takeover offer from Paramount Skydance, branding it “inadequate” amid an extraordinary corporate battle to control the legacy media conglomerate.

In a blunt letter to shareholders on Wednesday morning, WBD accused Paramount of having “consistently misled” investors by claiming its bid has a “full backstop” – a safety net to ensure it has sufficient funds – from the Ellisons.

Paramount did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Following a careful evaluation of Paramount’s recently launched tender offer, the Board concluded that the offer’s value is inadequate, with significant risks and costs imposed on our shareholders,” Samuel A Di Piazza Jr, chairman of WBD’s board, said in a statement. “This offer once again fails to address key concerns that we have consistently communicated to Paramount throughout our extensive engagement and review of their six previous proposals.

“We are confident that our merger with Netflix represents superior, more certain value for our shareholders and we look forward to delivering on the compelling benefits of our combination.”

Source: The Guardian


3 things for the CEO and SLT to be proud of

Annual sales declines of 2.6% for the past five years show its products and services struggled to connect with the market

Earnings per share decreased by more than the revenue over the last five years, showing each sale was less profitable

8× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio shows it’s overleveraged and increases the probability of shareholder dilution if things turn unexpectedly

When do the Board declare no confidence in them ?


Ousted Hans could still pocket most of $20M salary as company cuts 15,000 jobs

The grift that keeps on grifting. He will consult through the transition.
Plus private jet perks and more for leading the company from 1st to 3rd place.
Will he still have a security detail?
Employee shareholders pay the price.


From Dan: satisfying our custs and shareholder - yeah, Right!

Is this guy living in La-la land? Satisfying customers? For years customers have been complaining thar VZ is super expensive. While TM proivded a flat rate bill, VZ’s bills are never the same. The arrogance of VZ leadership and the board bite us all.

So their best solutions was: Fire 13k of our peers. This is all BS


Financial AI is a bust.

I don’t know where it started but someone in the banking sector painted a picture with golden rainbow of return via AI. All the banks all jumped on board with such a claim so as to not be left out.

Well its not panned out for any of them at all. Now, to make the shareholders happy $ has to be found. It’ll be done by way of layoffs. The first quarter of next year for all banks will be a bloodbath. All banks that made AI promises will be passing out pink slips left and right.


From now until March time frame will be really bad is what I’m guessing.

AI promises were made that it’d save TONS of $ and it has not. Now is the time to pay the piper and there are shareholder expectations to be met. They are expecting lots of cheddar on the promises made. So, you have to recoup that money from somewhere.
Lay people off + a reduction in force by way of attrition. Turn up the heat, pile on the work and watch people leave which is a big win so that you don’t have to pay out severance.

The best part that is that Jane still gets her extra 20+ million $ bonus….again. As far as Citi upper echelon is concerned, all is right with the world.


Wells Fargo - once a great place to work and profitable, no matter the economy...

Be real. Wells Fargo made money in up years and bad years. It was due to the various lines of business they had. It was a highly conservative and well balanced business plan. Norwest Bank, and then Wells Fargo, was a premier place to work and to put your trust. Until the new management and "new profit" centers were brought in. At that point, the bank, which had been steadily profitable, and a great place to work, began to break down. New managers, who's only thought was the latest FAD, were put in place. Accelerate that to today's situation, and you can see that Wells Fargo has become just another Citi, just another big corporation that is only organized to make money for shareholders. Many long time employees have left. Many have been terminated. Many have been laid off.
You can see where this is going. Fast forward to some unknown economic issue, and the bank is caught flat-footed. Losses. Huge losses. Due to new direction and lack of diversification. All straight line responsibility to the "new management" that have arrived, similar to locusts. Yes, locusts. You see, they bring their fellows. you know, the "yes men" who give good subservience but don't call out the risks. And then, everyone is surprised when the dominoes fall.
What a joke.


Stock price decrease despite layoffs

SAP is currently facing a very unstable situation.

We are already witnessing this with HP and several other major companies.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/hp-inc-shares-fall-as-company-says-it-will-cut-up-to-6000-employees.html

Despite significant layoffs and reductions in their operating costs, HP's stock has declined. Investors clearly perceive a lack of a solid plan to enhance profits, which has diminished shareholder confidence.

The SAP executive board is convinced that layoffs and dividends will elevate the stock price, but this approach will not work. Shareholders are not interested in quick returns through dividends; they want to see a comprehensive plan from SAP and increased investments rather than more layoffs. P23 has already demonstrated that layoffs are costly and do not significantly reduce operating expenses. The stock price began to drop sharply after the announcement of regular layoffs and superficial measures.

The only viable solution is to dismiss most of the board and develop a genuine strategy. However, supervisory board members who are attempting to hold the executive board accountable are already facing pressure and being urged to resign. Just as we witnessed half of the Betriebsrat depart during the recent layoffs, we can expect most supervisory board members to take a lucrative deal and exit.

Consequently, layoffs will persist. The stock price will continue to decline. The executive board will receive their largest bonuses ever, while leaving no budget for employee salary increases or bonuses. They will penalize employees because the workforce is too intimidated to advocate for themselves.


PK + EH and next Decision

JD absolutely burned Nike, pure failure no question. His strategy was cost reduction and DTC, no real tech chops as PK hoped, fitting of a consultant. Company value cut in half 2020-2024 during his time!

How does PK wipe the egg off his face after hand selecting JD, demoralizing employees, and scaring off shareholders? Go back to the safety of Nike DNA roots picking EH a former Dallas Cowboy trainer for his friend JJ.

Cronie nepotism at its best. EH is WAY over his head, he’s a salesman not a CEO. Nike has a very uncertain future ahead, it’s worrisome.

What’s next people? More excuses ahead of earnings coming certainly…


Verizon Credo

Ooh still seems we have one:

https://www.verizon.com/about/our-company/code-conduct

Seems it’s just about half the length it used to be, and what we lived up to daily, which made us great.. up until our management disregarded it in their daily life’s…

Mass shareholder returns is driven by having happy customers…

Is there happy customers?
Can we do a poll on redit?


Will somebody please think of the poor shareholders?

Guys, let’s pleeeease all stop being greedy and wanting to keep our jobs. Here are some stats to show you guys how greedy you are:

  • Verizon ONLY made $5 billion in net income last quarter. That’s practically nothing
  • Worst yet, Verizon has ONLY made $20 billion in net income in the past 12 months. Practically bankrupt. Very unprofitable.
  • Headcount was down over 45,000 under Hans. That’s nothing!!
  • Since 2015, headcount is down ~80,000. Why not more!? Come on. Take one for the team, guys.
  • Our dividend is ONLY 6.93% so we only pay out $11.6 billion a year to our shareholders in dividends. This clearly isn’t enough.
  • Hans only made $24 million a year and Sampath only makes $13 million a year. This hardly buys you waterfront in The Hamptons.

You guys need to all stop being so greedy over paying your mortgages, your children’s college bills, and going to the supermarket.

We need to keep our shareholders and executives at the forefront of everything, because they are clearly suffering much more than we are.

I’ll be starting a GoFundMe soon because I doubt Dan Schulman’s bonus will be big enough, but I’m sure he has already asked Perplexity and brought it up at the dinner table with his family.


IMO hits all time high in Canadian dollars

Looks like the shareholders are OK with Imperial Oil. I guess from a shareholder perspective, the company is doing OK.

Employees don’t want it to be like this too. After all, our pensions are tied to the company, and some of us will still get their salary from this company.

Don’t want bad for anyone, so happy to see that the stock price is going up.


$71 billion in stock buybacks over the last 5 years.

$40 billion more approved for 2026 and beyond.

It doesn’t matter that they are rolling in cash. They want you gone because there is never enough cash for those who worship it.

Capitalism destroys itself without a strong democratic government that protects its citizens. The government we have is bought by the capitalists.